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Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances of winning seven key swing states and securing a landslide victory are 12.6 percent—nearly half the 21.4 percent likelihood of former President Donald Trump achieving the same result, according to pollster Nate Silver.....Read Full Article>>
Silver’s election forecast model outlines all possible paths to victory for either candidate, looking at every combination of the seven key tipping-point states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
If Harris were to win all seven battleground states and the other states she expects to safely win, she would secure 319 Electoral College votes, well above the 270 needed to win the presidency.
Silver’s model suggests that Trump winning all of these swing states is the most likely scenario, and a Harris clean sweep is the second most probable outcome.
Newsweek reached out to Harris and Trump’s campaigns via email for comment.
Silver, a leading polling analyst and founder of polling aggregator 538 has created his own model to predict election outcomes on his Substack, the Silver Bulletin. This model is built upon the 538 election forecast methodology.
Silver’s model shows Harris is slightly ahead of Trump in the average of national polls, with the vice president at 48.5 percent and the former president at 47.8 percent.
However, while the model suggests that Harris is much likelier to win the popular vote—74.2 percent to 25.8 percent—it says that Trump has a greater chance to win the Electoral College, 52.6 percent to Harris’ 47 percent.
Trump won the presidency in 2016 without winning the popular vote, becoming the fifth president in U.S. history to do so.
Kamala Harris
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally in Ann Arbor, Michigan, on October 28. Pollster Nate Silver said Harris’ chances of a landslide victory on November 5 are slim. Brandon Bell/Getty Images
Silver previously noted that Harris’s most likely path to victory involves winning Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, three “blue wall” states that Democrats consistently won from 1992 to 2012 before Trump flipped them in 2016.
According to Silver’s model, Harris is favored to win Wisconsin and Michigan, while Trump is likelier to win Pennsylvania.
Of the other battleground states, Silver’s model currently suggests Trump is likely to win Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada.
These predictions broadly align with the states’ polling averages reported by 538.
Polling throughout this election cycle has consistently shown a tight race, with candidates often ahead by razor-thin leads in key battleground states that fall within the polls’ margins of error.
This means anything could happen on Election Day, with a possible landslide for either candidate or a tightly contested race.
There is no way to define a “landslide” victory, but political scientist Gerald Hill told the Associated Press that “it usually means exceeding expectations and being somewhat overwhelming.”
If Harris were to win all seven swing states, she would win the election by 100 Electoral College votes. If Trump wins all these states, he would win by a margin of 86 Electoral College votes.
A presidential candidate has won at least 100 more Electoral College votes than their opponent seven times over the past 50 years.
Silver’s model defines a landslide as a double-digit popular vote margin. By this definition, the model predicts Harris’s chances of achieving this at 1.1 percent and Trump’s at 0.1 percent.
The likelihood of each candidate winning the election has fluctuated in Silver’s model since Harris became the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee in July. Trump most recently overtook her on October 17…….Read Full Article
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